Wednesday, October 31, 2007

US Olympic Trials Marathon -- Prediction Contest



I'm bumping this because the trials are on saturday. Apparently you can watch the entire thing streaming off of your computer, but the start time is something like 7:30am Eastern, making it 4:30am Pacific...

Get your final predictions in now!

It looks like it should be a great field this year. We've got Ryan Hall coming off of his amazing debut 2:08:24 London Marathon and American half record of 59:43, Olympic Medalist Meb Keflezighi, Brian Sell of the Hansons-Brooks project (the dude runs like 160mpw and ran 2:10 at Boston), Abdi "The Black Cactus" Abdirahman, Dathan Ritzenhein, Alan Culpepper (who ran an awesome debut of 2:09 in the marathon a couple of years ago but never seemed to improve off of that...), Dan Browne (remember like five years ago when he was one of the bigshot US distance runners? he's supposedly finally healthy and ready to kick butt), and lately Josh Cox has run a solo 2:19 Marathon (starting out at a chill 6:00 pace and finishing up solid) to get the qualifier!

There's also the women's side. Deena Kastor is probably a huge favorite, though.

Top three get the spots! Who will it be?

I'm not sure how we should score things. I think it should be scored like this:

1) 10 points for getting the winner
2) 8 points for getting second place
3) 6 points for getting third
4) 4 points for fourth
5) 3 points for fifth
6) 2 points for sixth
7) 1 point for seventh

also an additionally 1 point for correct place predictions not already noted. For example, 1 point if you correctly guess "Oh man, Ritz is going to bomb and get 14th." If he gets 14th.

Furthermore a winning time should be submitted to break ties.

It's another six weeks, but start thinking!!!

GET PUMPED!!!

Oh yeah, here are qualifiers:

Men's Qualifers

Women's Qualifiers

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Also, I found this and it looks really sweet:

Chasing Glory, videos detailing the runners of the Olympic Trials

24 comments:

Markkimarkkonnen said...

i've heard goucher is running. also missing from that list are mbarak hussein and khannouchi.

don't forget fasil bizunesh.

you know who i want to see in there (i think he is in fact qualified)? gabe jennings.

kangway said...

Oh yeah! Gabe Jennings! He smiled and waved to us at that Carson meet. Ian thinks he runs like you, or you run like him, whichever it is.

I forgot to mention Khannouchi, but that is also what I heard. It's interesting that he's actually trying it out. He's been injured a long, long time. The question is, can he still hang? I thought the heat and humidity might have gotten to him at London.

Also I forgot about Fasil Bizuneh. His half is solid but his debut marathon is 2:18 and I don't think he ran so hot at London either, did he?

You know who else is missing? Fernando Cabada. Dude ran a 2:12.

And is Gilmore running?

Megumi said...

oh, some interesting names if you scroll down a bit--there's the lost boy Macharia Yuot, vanquisher of all things D3 (Steeple, 5K, 10K followed by a 2:25 marathon) and Justin Patananan a moderately talented LA area steepler.

Markkimarkkonnen said...

OK, well I'm not nearly well-informed enough to make good predictions, but I'll give it a shot:

1) Abdi
2) Hall
3) Meb
4) Sell
5) Relative Unknown
6) Browne
7) Culpepper

Ritz: DNF
Khannouchi: DNS

It's rather cruel to predict someone as DNF, but I made a list of seven, then realized I wanted to insert "Relative Unknown" in there somewhere, and somebody had to get sacked.

Ryan said...

You also forgot Dan "THE BEAST" Feldman, who will qualify in Chicago in a couple weeks, then come back and shock the world by placing third in the trials.

This will be an interesting race. Last time Brian Sell was relatively unknown and he led for 21 miles, and his teammate Trent Briney almost made the team in 4th, but in the end the three favorites went 1-2-3.

We are long removed from the sad days of 2000, when we sent one runner to the Olympics, and he was crappy (Rod DeHaven). Also the year Pasadena-area masters star Danny Martinez placed ninth. Not that he's terrible, but look at that list - how many really classy guys would you have to beat to place ninth?

kangway said...

I'm not going to submit my list just yet. I'm interested to see if Goucher really is running or not, because he'd be an interesting factor.

Is Feldman actually going to Qualify?

Ryan said...

Kangway -
The answer to your question is YES.

Goucher - really? He needs to step up or his wife will be wearing the pants in that marriage.

Megumi said...

BEAST!!! haven't heard from him in a while, but chicago is a good one.

does he race in those amazing/horrifying shoes? you'd kinda think he could shave those last 30 seconds if he didn't wear 15 pound shoes for 26.2 miles...

also i concur, kara goucher is a stud.

kangway said...

Kara Goucher is the man!

Yeah!!!

Woooo!!!!

GO KARA!

I've been to the Chicago Marathon a couple times in the past. It's a nice course, flat, fast, usually great weather and great crowds. I love the atmosphere there and I always know a couple of people running.

We'll see how he does soon enough.

Ryan said...

There is a rumor that BEAST will be running in racing flats. Also, he will harness the power of The Windy City with one his trademark, billowing XXXL cotton T-shirts.

kangway said...

Alright. Here's my top seven:

1) Hall
2) Abdi
3) Meb
4) Sell
5) Ritz
6) Culpepper
7) Khannouchi
8) Peter Gilmore

13)Edwardo Torres
11)James Carney
19)Clint Verran

Hmmm, that's about it.

Ryan said...

1) Hall
2) Abdi
3) Sell
4) Culpepper
5) Meb
6) Verran
7) Gilmore

kangway said...

No way will Verran place that high.

Ryan said...

He was fifth in 2004.

kangway said...

Interesting. Verran also just made some statement about how Sell was going to take it all.

Ian said...

69 2:44:29 B Sopagna Eap (OR)

She ran XC at my highschool. I think she was a freshman when I as a senior.

Markkimarkkonnen said...

ryan wins. kangway 2nd. i lose.

kangway said...

Ryan Shay...

kangway said...

Yeah, Ryan wins. As in, Ogliore wins this contest. But yes, Ryan Hall also wins.

I had a lot of near hits, Verran got 18th, not 19th, sell was 3rd, not 4th, actually those are the only two. Nevermid, Ryan destroyed us.

It's interesting that this team is made up of three guys that have never made the Olympics. Although, if Ritz qualifies for the 10k he may decide to run that.

Markkimarkkonnen said...

ritz HAS made it to the olympics. he dnf'd

kangway said...

Oops, my bad. I meant none of them have made the Olympic Marathon team before.

Plus that whole Ritz 10k thing back in '04 was just ridiculous. Let's not count that.

kangway said...

Hmmm, maybe Ritz is thinking otherwise:

"But that last loop had me worried. Every time I put my foot down, it started cramping a little. This is so emotional. Before today, I would have said that I would choose the 10,000 in Beijing if I made the team in the 10,000. But now I'm feeling like I would choose the marathon." -Ritz postrace

Ryan said...

That race was spectacular, totally worth getting up at 4am. I'd bet Ritz will run the marathon - he knows he has no chance of running with the Africans in the 10km.

Ryan said...

Yuot was a very respectable 33rd in 2:18:56.