Kangway and I were talking about Hall's chances at London today, and we had some differing opinions. So I'm going to guess Hall will run 2:07:30 +/- 30s and get 6th +/- 3 places.
Kangway believed he would run under 2:06, but I think he may have been joking.
It's almost impossible to predict the race as a whole. The field is probably stronger than the Olympic marathon will be (since Gebrselassie will be absent from both). It seems like the only really big names they DON'T have are Gharib and Cheruiyout.(Of course, there are probably about 20 Kenyans in 2:07 shape who you've never even heard of.) Wanjiru looks like a good choice, but there are so many great runners in there and so many things that can go wrong for one guy, that I would take the field over any one runner at odds of about 1:2 (I bet $2, and get $3 if the field beats Wanjiru, or same odds against Lel, or whoever you pick as the favorite.)
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I'm upset that I didnt' actually see this until after the race. Our predictions ended up being sort of halfway. He ran almost under 2:06 (It was raining, windy and he ran 2:06:17!) which is faster than the 2:07:30 predictions you put up, but your placing range was pretty good (5th).
Lel thinks he can break the WR now.
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