I was just talking to a good friend of mine who goes to UMich and trains with Elerton and Willis. His claim is that Willis can and likely will beat Webb at world's. His support is that Willis is a much better racer and nearly always outsmarts Webb. While his PR is a little slower he might possibly be the right guy for the job. Furthmore, while Webb has spent his summer around Europe intimidating the world with his fast and fancy times, Willis has laid low, not allowing Webb to know what he's capable of. Now, I'm not saying for certain that Willis will win, but there may be a good chance.
Willis kicking ass
Plus, face it, Willis doesn't need plugs.
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I don't think Willis is the man to do it. Webb already ran against Willis, Mottram, and Lagat back in June (I think it was June), and beat all of them. In fact, Willis was 4th in that race.
I guess you are right that Willis hasn't been doing much lately, though. He's laid low, but also hasn't he just been injured the last few years.
Willis' 1500 PR is a 3:32.17 I believe. Webb's is 3:30.54, this season, followed by a very fast 3:46.91 PR.
I think Webb is just so fast and so strong right now. 1:43.84, 3:46.91. They used to criticize him about not being able to race, but man, he certainly knows how to now. He's developed serious patience, and his kick has finally rolled around.
In short, there's a new Webb out there. He's faster, stronger, and races smarter. Willis has his work cut out for him.
Also since your friend goes to Michigan I think it's a biased opinion. At Michigan they all hate Webb (I mean, he left after a year), and they love Willis.
There's no way Willis will beat Webb in Osaka. They've been well matched in years past, but this season Webb is on a different level.
Plus, male pattern baldness is correlated with high levels of testosterone, so that's actually a knock against Willis.
willis might beat webb, if something goes wrong for webb and he ends up eighth. he's clearly the best in the world right now though, and willis is not. webb is faster at 800, 1500m, one mile, 5000m, and 10,000m. webb is a more-seasoned competitor, having won several major international meets. willis, i think, won the commonwealth games, but i would give the competitive advantage easily to webb.
the people he needs to be looking out for most closely are baala, whatever kenyans are in the race, and maybe a random european or moroccan or heshko or lagat
"The Kenyans. There are always new Kenyans."
Noureddine Morceli, when asked (at the height of his 1500m dominance) if there were any competitors he feared.
Did you read Geb's comments about Kenyans on letsrun? He said something along the same lines:
"Someone like (Daniel) Komen he was perfect for 2 or 3 years... In Kenya it is hard to stay (on top) very long because there are many runners from Kenya...."
He also acknowledged that Samuel Wanjiru, the world half marathon record holder is running very well, but once again pointed to the "the Kenyan problem where they don't stay (at the top) very long."
I think the Kenyans like to run as a team. They help eachother out and try to take control of the race. I've heard that's one of the reasons that Ryun didn't win at Mexico City.
ryun was invincible in 66/67. he could close the last lap in <50 seconds off a slow pace. nothing against keino, but if the olympics hadn't been in mexico city, ryun would have eaten keino alive. keino just didn't have the insane miling speed ryun had. ryun was a world record-holder at the half-mile and might have been the fastest miler until coe.
also, ryun was just slightly past his peak by 1968, and unfortunately never returned to his best form afterwards
Jim Ryun's a whiny republican born-again piece-o-crap, I'm glad Kip beat him - actually he destroyed him, largest margin of victory in the olympic history of the event. Ryun knew the race would be in Mexico City - it was a fair fight and he lost because he only had one race tactic.
Also, if I were a bettin' man and Webb's injury isn't serious, I'd take 3 to 1 odds for Webb over Willis FTW.
"ryun was just slightly past his peak by 1968"? He was 21!
your peak is when you run your best times, not when you reach a certain age.
keino himself later said Mexico City was an unfair place to hold the Olympics
Keino might have had an advantage in the altitude, but he'd also already run both the heats and finals of the 5k and 10k, collapsing in the latter.
Misty-eyed account of his '68 olympic races here
Plus, he gets points for not being a right-wing Bible humper.
I once read an interview with Jim Ryun. I was pretty unimpressed with it because half the time he was just talking about his feelings about receiving tons of money under the table.
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